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Air Force Central FC vs Udon Thani — Thai League 2 2018

Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
FT
2 – 1
Udon Thani
Udon Thani
2/17/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Thupatemee Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Air Force Central FC47%
×Draw24%
Udon Thani29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Air Force Central FC
1.65
Udon Thani
1.25

Air Force Central FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Air Force Central FC
1.35
Udon Thani
1.15

allows per match

Air Force Central FC
1.35
Udon Thani
1.94

finishing

Air Force Central FC+0.00on par
Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Air Force Central FC ↓

Udon Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Air Force Central FC or draw
71%
Air Force Central FC or Udon Thani
76%
Draw or Udon Thani
53%

Winning margin

Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
24%
Udon Thani wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
81%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
49%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
23%
Udon Thani 1+ goals
71%
Udon Thani 2+ goals
36%
Udon Thani 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
62%
Udon Thani (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Air Force Central FC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Air Force Central FC attack 1.35 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Air Force Central FC scores more
47%
level
24%
Udon Thani scores more
29%

Air Force Central FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Air Force Central FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Air Force Central FC vs Udon Thani

Air Force Central FC beat Udon Thani 2-1 in Thai League 2 on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Thupatemee Stadium (Bangkok).