Udinese 0–2 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Torino

N. Vlašić 53'

D. Zapata 10'

3/16/2024

Serie A · Round 29Bluenergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese39%

×Draw28%

Torino33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Udinese

1.22

Torino

1.11

Udinese creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

1.09

creates per match

1.06

1.17

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Udinese

1.09

Torino

1.06

allows per match

Udinese

1.17

Torino

1.34

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less

Torino+0.02on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

67%

Udinese or Torino

72%

Draw or Torino

61%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

17%

Torino wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

70%

Udinese 2+ goals

34%

Udinese 3+ goals

12%

Torino 1+ goals

67%

Torino 2+ goals

30%

Torino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

54%

Torino (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Torino away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + Torino defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Torino attack 1.06 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Udinese scores more

39%

level

28%

Torino scores more

33%

Udinese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

N. Vlašić

Torino · F

8.3

Match Events

10'

D. Zapata↳ M. Vojvoda

31'

K. Ehizibue← M. Payero

43'

Walace

45'

Kingsley Ehizibue

46'

T. Kristensen← João Ferreira

52'

Alessandro Buongiorno

53'

N. Vlašić↳ D. Zapata

57'

Lautaro Giannetti

58'

J. Zemura← H. Kamara

59'

F. Ebosele← K. Ehizibue

65'

M. Lovato← M. Vojvoda

67'

A. Sanabria← D. Okereke

76'

I. Success← R. Pereyra

83'

S. Sazonov← A. Buongiorno

83'

V. Lazaro← R. Bellanova

87'

Saba Sazonov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseTorino

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots12

0.42Expected Goals (xG)0.98

3Corners4

11Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots12

1On Target5

7Off Target3

4Blocked4

5Inside Box9

7Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

342Total Passes456

262Accurate Passes381

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Udinese vs Torino

Torino beat Udinese 2-0 in Serie A on March 16, 2024.

Goals: D. Zapata (10'), N. Vlašić (53').

Torino controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Bluenergy Stadium in Udine.

Udinese vs Torino — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Udinese vs Torino