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Torino vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

Torino
Torino
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udinese
Udinese
4/23/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 33Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Torino40%
×Draw26%
Udinese34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torino
1.41
Udinese
1.28

Torino creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Torino
1.26
Udinese
1.09

allows per match

Torino
1.47
Udinese
1.56

finishing

Torino-0.09on par
Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torino ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torino or draw
66%
Torino or Udinese
74%
Draw or Udinese
60%

Winning margin

Torino wins by 2+
19%
Udinese wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Torino 1+ goals
76%
Torino 2+ goals
41%
Torino 3+ goals
17%
Udinese 1+ goals
72%
Udinese 2+ goals
37%
Udinese 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torino (draw refunded)
54%
Udinese (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torino at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torino attack 1.26 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Udinese attack 1.09 + Torino defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torino scores more
40%
level
26%
Udinese scores more
34%

Torino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Torino 2–0 Udinese

Torino beat Udinese 2-0 in Serie A on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in Torino.