Udinese 1–2 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Torino

Deulofeu 26'

P. Pellegri 69'

O. Aina 14'

10/23/2022

Serie A · Round 11Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Udinese38%

×Draw28%

Torino34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.12

Udinese

1.21

Torino

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.13

creates per match

1.01

1.23

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Udinese

1.13

Torino

1.01

allows per match

Udinese

1.23

Torino

1.30

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less

Torino-0.01on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

66%

Udinese or Torino

72%

Draw or Torino

62%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

16%

Torino wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

70%

Udinese 2+ goals

34%

Udinese 3+ goals

12%

Torino 1+ goals

67%

Torino 2+ goals

31%

Torino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

53%

Torino (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Torino away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Torino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Torino attack 1.01 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Udinese scores more

38%

level

28%

Torino scores more

34%

Udinese at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Deulofeu

Udinese · F

7.7

Match Events

14'

O. Aina↳ A. Miranchuk

26'

Deulofeu↳ D. Udogie

32'

Isaac Success

34'

Valentino Lazaro

61'

N. Radonjić← A. Miranchuk

61'

M. Vojvoda← V. Lazaro

65'

Beto← I. Success

65'

S. Lovrić← L. Samardžić

65'

T. Arslan← J. Makengo

66'

K. Linetty← S. Ricci

68'

Ola Aina

69'

P. Pellegri↳ N. Radonjić

71'

Vanja Milinković-Savić

81'

I. Nestorovski← Walace

81'

K. Ehizibue← N. Pérez

85'

Jaka Bijol

86'

Karol Linetty

90'

Y. Karamoh← P. Pellegri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseTorino

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots13

7Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target6

9Off Target5

2Blocked2

10Inside Box9

5Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

418Total Passes354

343Accurate Passes271

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0