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Udinese vs Torino — Serie A 2026

Udinese
Udinese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Torino
Torino
R. de Paul 28'
S. Meïté 49'
9/16/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 4Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese38%
×Draw28%
Torino34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
1.19
Torino
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.08
Torino
1.03

allows per match

Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.30

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less
Torino+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
66%
Udinese or Torino
72%
Draw or Torino
62%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
16%
Torino wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
70%
Udinese 2+ goals
33%
Udinese 3+ goals
12%
Torino 1+ goals
67%
Torino 2+ goals
30%
Torino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
53%
Torino (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Torino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Torino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Torino attack 1.03 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Udinese scores more
38%
level
28%
Torino scores more
34%

Udinese at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
S. MeïtéTorinoTorino · M
7.8

Match Events

18'
S. Zaza← Iago Falqué
28'
R. de Paul↳ I. Pussetto
38'
Simone Zaza
43'
Roberto Soriano
49'
S. Meïté↳ R. Soriano
54'
Seko Fofana
58'
Ł. Teodorczyk← I. Pussetto
69'
D. Machís← R. Mandragora
75'
O. Aina← L. De Silvestri
85'
A. Barák← K. Lasagna
88'
V. Parigini← Álex Berenguer
89'
Darwin Machís

Possession

33%Udinese

Shots

6Udinese

Pass accuracy

46%Udinese

Statistics

UdineseTorino
Overview
33%Possession67%
6Total Shots14
3Corners7
16Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots14
1On Target4
5Off Target7
0Blocked3
3Inside Box5
3Outside Box9
Passing
33%Possession67%
271Total Passes521
200Accurate Passes449
74%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Udinese vs Torino

Udinese and Torino drew 1-1 in Serie A on September 16, 2018.

Goals: R. de Paul (28'), S. Meïté (49').

Torino controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.