Udinese 0–1 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brescia

Rômulo 57'

9/21/2019

Serie A · Round 4Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Udinese54%

×Draw25%

Brescia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.93

Udinese

1.63

Brescia

0.93

Udinese creates 75% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 24 away

1.12

creates per match

0.67

1.19

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Udinese

1.12

Brescia

0.67

allows per match

Udinese

1.19

Brescia

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

78%

Udinese or Brescia

75%

Draw or Brescia

46%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

29%

Brescia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

80%

Udinese 2+ goals

48%

Udinese 3+ goals

22%

Brescia 1+ goals

61%

Brescia 2+ goals

24%

Brescia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

71%

Brescia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 139 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.12 + Brescia defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Brescia attack 0.67 + Udinese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Udinese scores more

54%

level

25%

Brescia scores more

22%

Udinese at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Jesse Joronen

Brescia · G

7.5

Match Events

11'

15'

21'

45'

57'

57'

61'

67'

Stefano Okaka← Ignacio Pussetto

67'

Antonín Barák← Seko Fofana

76'

Daniele Gastaldello← Nikolas Špalek

82'

Stefano Okaka

85'

Florian Aye

86'

Ilija Nestorovski← Ken Sema

90'

Jaromír Zmrhal← Rômulo

90'

Alessandro Matri← Alfredo Donnarumma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseBrescia

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots9

3Corners9

22Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target4

3Off Target3

4Blocked2

6Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

447Total Passes334

344Accurate Passes223

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2