Brescia 0–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Brescia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Udinese

B. Corradi 80'

10/17/2010

Serie A · Round 7Stadio Mario Rigamonti (Brescia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brescia34%

×Draw26%

Udinese40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BresciaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.40

Brescia

1.26

Udinese

1.40

Udinese creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 139 away

0.96

creates per match

1.18

1.63

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Brescia

0.96

Udinese

1.18

allows per match

Brescia

1.63

Udinese

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par

Udinese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brescia or draw

60%

Brescia or Udinese

74%

Draw or Udinese

66%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+

15%

Udinese wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals

72%

Brescia 2+ goals

36%

Brescia 3+ goals

13%

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

41%

Udinese 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)

46%

Udinese (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 0.96 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.26

Udinese attack 1.18 + Brescia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brescia scores more

34%

level

26%

Udinese scores more

40%

Udinese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

B. Corradi← G. Denis

69'

K. Asamoah← A. Di Natale

80'

B. Corradi↳ G. Pasquale

82'

D. Possanzini← D. Baiocco

85'

R. Taddei← P. Kone

89'

A. Budel← P. Hetemaj

Brescia

Udinese

1

Handanovi

13

Coda

2

Zapata

26

A

17

3

66

88

7

10

▼

Natale

16

▼

22

26

5

15

23

17

▼

Baiocco

33

▼

Kone

56

▼

11

9

7

82'▲D. Possanzini←▼D. Baiocco

85'▲R. Taddei←▼P. Kone

89'▲A. Budel←▼P. Hetemaj

Brescia substitutes

18Possanzini31Taddei19Budel6Bega1Arcari21Maio4Filippini

60'▲B. Corradi←▼G. Denis

69'▲K. Asamoah←▼A. Di Natale

Udinese substitutes

9Corradi20Asamoah6Belardi45Angella27Armero23Abdi83Flores