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Udinese vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Udinese
Udinese
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
AC Milan
AC Milan
1/20/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 21Bluenergy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese31%
×Draw27%
AC Milan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
1.13
AC Milan
1.37

AC Milan creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.09
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Udinese
1.17
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Udinese-0.13scores less
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
58%
Udinese or AC Milan
73%
Draw or AC Milan
69%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
12%
AC Milan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
68%
Udinese 2+ goals
31%
Udinese 3+ goals
11%
AC Milan 1+ goals
75%
AC Milan 2+ goals
40%
AC Milan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
42%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.09 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Udinese defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Udinese scores more
31%
level
27%
AC Milan scores more
42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Udinese 2–3 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Udinese 3-2 in Serie A on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Bluenergy Stadium in Udine.