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AC Milan vs Udinese — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Udinese
Udinese
10/19/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 8Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

AC Milan49%
×Draw25%
Udinese27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.61
Udinese
1.12

AC Milan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.67
Udinese
1.09

allows per match

AC Milan
1.15
Udinese
1.56

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less
Udinese+0.20scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
73%
AC Milan or Udinese
75%
Draw or Udinese
51%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
25%
Udinese wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
80%
AC Milan 2+ goals
48%
AC Milan 3+ goals
22%
Udinese 1+ goals
67%
Udinese 2+ goals
31%
Udinese 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
65%
Udinese (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.56 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Udinese attack 1.09 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AC Milan scores more
49%
level
25%
Udinese scores more
27%

AC Milan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: AC Milan 1–0 Udinese

AC Milan beat Udinese 1-0 in Serie A on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.