Udinese 1–0 AC Milan: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AC Milan

Rodrigo Becão 72'

8/25/2019

Serie A · Round 1Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese31%

×Draw27%

AC Milan42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.33

Udinese

1.11

AC Milan

1.33

AC Milan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

1.08

creates per match

1.49

1.18

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

AC Milan

1.49

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

AC Milan

1.15

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

AC Milan-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

58%

Udinese or AC Milan

73%

Draw or AC Milan

69%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

12%

AC Milan wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

67%

Udinese 2+ goals

30%

Udinese 3+ goals

10%

AC Milan 1+ goals

74%

AC Milan 2+ goals

38%

AC Milan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

43%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

AC Milan attack 1.49 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Udinese scores more

31%

level

27%

AC Milan scores more

42%

AC Milan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

Rodrigo Becão

Udinese · D

8.2

Match Events

21'

34'

44'

45'

60'

Franck Kessié← Fabio Borini

71'

Rodrigo De Paul← Ignacio Pussetto

71'

Ilija Nestorovski← Seko Fofana

72'

Rodrigo Becão↳ Rodrigo De Paul

75'

Rafael Leão← Samu Castillejo

76'

Ismaël Bennacer← Lucas Paquetá

81'

Ken Sema← Giuseppe Pezzella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseAC

Overview

40%Possession60%

17Total Shots14

9Corners4

16Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots14

6On Target0

6Off Target9

5Blocked5

6Inside Box5

11Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

351Total Passes535

287Accurate Passes472

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3