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UDI '19 vs DEM — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

UDI '19
UDI '19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
DEM
DEM
9/18/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 7Sportpark Parkzicht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

UDI '1934%
×Draw24%
DEM42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UDI '19
1.39
DEM
1.58

DEM creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

creates per match

UDI '19
1.26
DEM
1.23

allows per match

UDI '19
1.94
DEM
1.52

finishing

UDI '19+0.00on par
DEM+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UDI '19 ↓

DEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

UDI '19 or draw
58%
UDI '19 or DEM
76%
Draw or DEM
66%

Winning margin

UDI '19 wins by 2+
15%
DEM wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

UDI '19 1+ goals
75%
UDI '19 2+ goals
40%
UDI '19 3+ goals
16%
DEM 1+ goals
79%
DEM 2+ goals
47%
DEM 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

UDI '19 (draw refunded)
44%
DEM (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UDI '19 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

DEM away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UDI '19 attack 1.26 + DEM defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

DEM attack 1.23 + UDI '19 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UDI '19 scores more
34%
level
24%
DEM scores more
42%

DEM at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UDI '19 3 – 1 DEM

UDI '19 beat DEM 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Parkzicht in Uden.