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DEM vs UDI '19 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

DEM
DEM
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UDI '19
UDI '19
3/5/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 24Sportpark Adrichem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

DEM48%
×Draw23%
UDI '1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEM
1.85
UDI '19
1.38

DEM creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

creates per match

DEM
1.55
UDI '19
1.18

allows per match

DEM
1.57
UDI '19
2.15

finishing

DEM+0.00on par
UDI '19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEM ↓

UDI '19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

DEM or draw
71%
DEM or UDI '19
77%
Draw or UDI '19
52%

Winning margin

DEM wins by 2+
27%
UDI '19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

DEM 1+ goals
84%
DEM 2+ goals
55%
DEM 3+ goals
28%
UDI '19 1+ goals
75%
UDI '19 2+ goals
40%
UDI '19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

DEM (draw refunded)
63%
UDI '19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEM at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

UDI '19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEM attack 1.55 + UDI '19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

UDI '19 attack 1.18 + DEM defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

DEM scores more
48%
level
23%
UDI '19 scores more
29%

DEM at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "DEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEM vs UDI '19

DEM beat UDI '19 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Adrichem in Beverwijk.