Uddevalla W 3–4 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Uddevalla W

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Eskilstuna United W

V. Stenberg 58'

N. Muminovic 48'

J. Jonasson 15'

L. Duras 90'

A. Larsson 86'

M. Selling 57'

K. Collin 22'

11/12/2023

Elitettan · Round 26Rimnersvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Uddevalla W31%

×Draw23%

Eskilstuna United W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uddevalla WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.79

Uddevalla W

1.43

Eskilstuna United W

1.79

Eskilstuna United W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 39 away

1.08

creates per match

1.82

1.77

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Uddevalla W

1.08

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Uddevalla W

1.77

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uddevalla W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uddevalla W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Uddevalla W or draw

54%

Uddevalla W or Eskilstuna United W

77%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

69%

Winning margin

Uddevalla W wins by 2+

14%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Uddevalla W 1+ goals

76%

Uddevalla W 2+ goals

42%

Uddevalla W 3+ goals

17%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

83%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

53%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Uddevalla W (draw refunded)

40%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uddevalla W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uddevalla W attack 1.08 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Uddevalla W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Uddevalla W scores more

31%

level

23%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

46%

Eskilstuna United W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Jonasson

22'

K. Collin

46'

E. Tillenius← J. Miclat

48'

N. Muminovic

57'

M. Selling

58'

V. Stenberg

68'

I. Åkerlund← M. Selling

81'

S. Dahl Forslund← C. Eriksson

85'

C. Swahn← A. Holmqvist

86'

A. Larsson

90'

L. Duras

Uddevalla

Eskilstuna

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: J. Björk

85'▲C. Swahn←▼A. Holmqvist

Uddevalla W substitutes

SwahnJohanssonRobertssonKauffeldtBernelandKarlssonStenstavold

Manager: V. Barsley

46'▲E. Tillenius←▼J. Miclat

68'▲I. Åkerlund←▼M. Selling

81'▲S. Dahl Forslund←▼C. Eriksson

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

TilleniusÅkerlundForslundWallmarkWalterBrannemoYouhana