Eskilstuna United W 1–1 Uddevalla W: Result & Stats

Eskilstuna United W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Uddevalla W

I. Åkerlund 21'

M. Bader 39'

4/29/2023

Elitettan · Round 4Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Eskilstuna United W68%

×Draw18%

Uddevalla W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchUddevalla W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.89

Eskilstuna United W

2.27

Uddevalla W

0.89

Eskilstuna United W creates 155% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 13 away

1.85

creates per match

0.85

0.92

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.85

Uddevalla W

0.85

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

0.92

Uddevalla W

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Uddevalla W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Uddevalla W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

87%

Eskilstuna United W or Uddevalla W

82%

Draw or Uddevalla W

32%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

45%

Uddevalla W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

90%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

66%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

39%

Uddevalla W 1+ goals

59%

Uddevalla W 2+ goals

22%

Uddevalla W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

84%

Uddevalla W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Uddevalla W away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.85 + Uddevalla W defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.27

Uddevalla W attack 0.85 + Eskilstuna United W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

68%

level

18%

Uddevalla W scores more

13%

Eskilstuna United W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

I. Åkerlund

39'

M. Bader

63'

A. Vigholm← P. McAllister

66'

S. Fredgren

66'

K. Brahimaj← R. Sten

66'

L. Halldin← E. Robertsson

77'

S. Dahl Forslund← A. Karlsson

82'

K. Brahimaj

84'

H. Kauffeldt← J. Jonasson

84'

N. Muminovic← H. Bergström

90+2'

A. Holmqvist← E. Persson

Eskilstuna

Uddevalla

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: V. Barsley

63'▲A. Vigholm←▼P. McAllister

77'▲S. Dahl Forslund←▼A. Karlsson

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

VigholmForslundKarlssonJohanssonSellingDelerudZetterberg

Manager: J. Björk

66'▲K. Brahimaj←▼R. Sten

66'▲L. Halldin←▼E. Robertsson

84'▲H. Kauffeldt←▼J. Jonasson

84'▲N. Muminovic←▼H. Bergström

90+2'▲A. Holmqvist←▼E. Persson

Uddevalla W substitutes

BrahimajHalldinKauffeldtMuminovicHolmqvistHahne

Elitettan: Eskilstuna United W 1–1 Uddevalla W

Eskilstuna United W and Uddevalla W drew 1-1 in Elitettan on April 29, 2023.

Goals: I. Åkerlund (21'), M. Bader (39').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.

Eskilstuna United W vs Uddevalla W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: Eskilstuna United W 1–1 Uddevalla W