UD Santa Marta 1–0 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

UD Santa Marta

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Burgos

4/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UD Santa Marta51%

×Draw25%

Real Burgos24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.99

UD Santa Marta

1.57

Real Burgos

0.99

UD Santa Marta creates 59% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 30 away

1.24

creates per match

1.00

0.99

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Real Burgos →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

76%

UD Santa Marta or Real Burgos

75%

Draw or Real Burgos

49%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

26%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

79%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

46%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

21%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

63%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

26%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

68%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

51%

level

25%

Real Burgos scores more

24%

UD Santa Marta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Real Burgos

UD Santa Marta beat Real Burgos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.

UD Santa Marta vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Real Burgos