Real Burgos 3–1 UD Santa Marta: Result & Stats

Real Burgos

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UD Santa Marta

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Burgos39%

×Draw28%

UD Santa Marta34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real BurgosExpected goals in this matchUD Santa Marta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.15

Real Burgos

1.25

UD Santa Marta

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 115 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

1.32

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Real Burgos

1.00

UD Santa Marta

0.97

allows per match

Real Burgos

1.32

UD Santa Marta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

UD Santa Marta →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw

66%

Real Burgos or UD Santa Marta

72%

Draw or UD Santa Marta

61%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+

17%

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals

71%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

36%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

13%

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

68%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

32%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

53%

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Burgos scores more

39%

level

28%

UD Santa Marta scores more

34%

Real Burgos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Burgos vs UD Santa Marta

Real Burgos beat UD Santa Marta 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.

Real Burgos vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Burgos vs UD Santa Marta