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UD Santa Marta vs Peñaranda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peñaranda
Peñaranda
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

UD Santa Marta57%
×Draw24%
Peñaranda19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Santa Marta
1.69
Peñaranda
0.84

UD Santa Marta creates 101% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 16 away

creates per match

UD Santa Marta
1.24
Peñaranda
0.69

allows per match

UD Santa Marta
0.99
Peñaranda
2.13

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par
Peñaranda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Peñaranda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw
81%
UD Santa Marta or Peñaranda
76%
Draw or Peñaranda
43%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
32%
Peñaranda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
82%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
50%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
24%
Peñaranda 1+ goals
57%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
21%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
76%
Peñaranda (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Peñaranda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Peñaranda defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

Peñaranda attack 0.69 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more
57%
level
24%
Peñaranda scores more
19%

UD Santa Marta at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Santa Marta 1 – 0 Peñaranda

UD Santa Marta beat Peñaranda 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.