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Peñaranda vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Peñaranda
Peñaranda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
10/17/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Peñaranda45%
×Draw28%
UD Santa Marta27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peñaranda
1.31
UD Santa Marta
0.93

Peñaranda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 115 away

creates per match

Peñaranda
1.13
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Peñaranda
0.88
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Peñaranda+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peñaranda ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Peñaranda or draw
73%
Peñaranda or UD Santa Marta
72%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
55%

Winning margin

Peñaranda wins by 2+
21%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peñaranda 1+ goals
73%
Peñaranda 2+ goals
38%
Peñaranda 3+ goals
14%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
61%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
24%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Peñaranda (draw refunded)
63%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peñaranda at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peñaranda attack 1.13 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Peñaranda defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Peñaranda scores more
45%
level
28%
UD Santa Marta scores more
27%

Peñaranda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Peñaranda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Peñaranda 1–1 UD Santa Marta

Peñaranda and UD Santa Marta drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Peñaranda de Bracamonte in Peñaranda de Bracamonte.