UD Santa Marta 0–1 Bembibre: Result & Stats

UD Santa Marta

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bembibre

Cristian Álvarez 84'

1/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

UD Santa Marta48%

×Draw27%

Bembibre25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.91

UD Santa Marta

1.38

Bembibre

0.91

UD Santa Marta creates 52% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 110 away

1.24

creates per match

0.82

0.99

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Bembibre →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

75%

UD Santa Marta or Bembibre

73%

Draw or Bembibre

52%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

23%

Bembibre wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

75%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

40%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

16%

Bembibre 1+ goals

60%

Bembibre 2+ goals

23%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

66%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bembibre attack 0.82 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

48%

level

27%

Bembibre scores more

25%

UD Santa Marta at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Israel González← Iker Rodríguez

67'

Kevin García← O. Mano

72'

Iván Tato← Diego Iza

78'

David Martín← Chopi

78'

Sergio Tena← Diego Alonso

84'

Tomás Cáceres← Erik Bugarín

84'

Cristian Álvarez

90+2'

Tyrese Gomes← Alejandro Gómez

90+2'

Lamin← Cristian Álvarez

Bembibre

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alonso Fernández

67'▲Kevin García←▼O. Mano

78'▲David Martín←▼Chopi

78'▲Sergio Tena←▼Diego Alonso

84'▲Tomás Cáceres←▼Erik Bugarín

UD Santa Marta substitutes

GarcíaMartínTenaCáceres

Manager: Manolo Perez

55'▲Israel González←▼Iker Rodríguez

72'▲Iván Tato←▼Diego Iza

90+2'▲Tyrese Gomes←▼Alejandro Gómez

90+2'▲Lamin←▼Cristian Álvarez

Bembibre substitutes

GonzálezTatoGomesLamin

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre

Bembibre beat UD Santa Marta 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 5, 2025.

Goals: Cristian Álvarez (84').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.

UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Bembibre