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Bembibre vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Bembibre41%
×Draw28%
UD Santa Marta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.27
UD Santa Marta
1.06

Bembibre creates 20% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 115 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
69%
Bembibre or UD Santa Marta
72%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
59%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
18%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
72%
Bembibre 2+ goals
36%
Bembibre 3+ goals
14%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
65%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
29%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
57%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bembibre scores more
41%
level
28%
UD Santa Marta scores more
31%

Bembibre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bembibre 2 – 0 UD Santa Marta

Bembibre beat UD Santa Marta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1 in Bembibre.