UD San Pedro 1–2 Málaga II: Result & Stats

UD San Pedro

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Málaga II

12/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

UD San Pedro38%

×Draw29%

Málaga II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San PedroExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.07

UD San Pedro

1.17

Málaga II

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 92 away

1.24

creates per match

1.35

0.79

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

UD San Pedro

1.24

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

UD San Pedro

0.79

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Pedro+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Pedro ↓

Málaga II →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD San Pedro or draw

67%

UD San Pedro or Málaga II

71%

Draw or Málaga II

62%

Winning margin

UD San Pedro wins by 2+

16%

Málaga II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

UD San Pedro 1+ goals

69%

UD San Pedro 2+ goals

33%

UD San Pedro 3+ goals

11%

Málaga II 1+ goals

66%

Málaga II 2+ goals

29%

Málaga II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Pedro (draw refunded)

54%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Pedro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Pedro attack 1.24 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Málaga II attack 1.35 + UD San Pedro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

UD San Pedro scores more

38%

level

29%

Málaga II scores more

33%

UD San Pedro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UD San Pedro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Pedro vs Málaga II

Málaga II beat UD San Pedro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Pedro de Alcántara.

UD San Pedro vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD San Pedro vs Málaga II