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Málaga II vs UD San Pedro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Málaga II
Málaga II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
UD San Pedro
UD San Pedro
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Málaga II67%
×Draw21%
UD San Pedro13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Málaga II
1.91
UD San Pedro
0.68

Málaga II creates 181% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 33 away

creates per match

Málaga II
2.03
UD San Pedro
0.67

allows per match

Málaga II
0.69
UD San Pedro
1.79

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par
UD San Pedro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

UD San Pedro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw
87%
Málaga II or UD San Pedro
79%
Draw or UD San Pedro
33%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+
41%
UD San Pedro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals
85%
Málaga II 2+ goals
57%
Málaga II 3+ goals
30%
UD San Pedro 1+ goals
49%
UD San Pedro 2+ goals
15%
UD San Pedro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)
84%
UD San Pedro (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

UD San Pedro away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + UD San Pedro defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.91

UD San Pedro attack 0.67 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Málaga II scores more
67%
level
21%
UD San Pedro scores more
13%

Málaga II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Málaga II 3–2 UD San Pedro

Málaga II beat UD San Pedro 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de la Federación Malagueña de Fútbol in Málaga.