UD San Pedro 4–0 Intergym: Result & Stats

UD San Pedro

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Intergym

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 24Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

UD San Pedro78%

×Draw15%

Intergym7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San PedroExpected goals in this matchIntergym

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.52

UD San Pedro

2.34

Intergym

0.52

UD San Pedro creates 350% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

1.24

creates per match

0.25

0.79

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

UD San Pedro

1.24

Intergym

0.25

allows per match

UD San Pedro

0.79

Intergym

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Pedro+0.00on par

Intergym+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Pedro ↓

Intergym →

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

UD San Pedro or draw

93%

UD San Pedro or Intergym

85%

Draw or Intergym

22%

Winning margin

UD San Pedro wins by 2+

54%

Intergym wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Pedro 1+ goals

90%

UD San Pedro 2+ goals

67%

UD San Pedro 3+ goals

41%

Intergym 1+ goals

41%

Intergym 2+ goals

10%

Intergym 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Pedro (draw refunded)

92%

Intergym (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Pedro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

Intergym away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Pedro attack 1.24 + Intergym defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.34

Intergym attack 0.25 + UD San Pedro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

UD San Pedro scores more

78%

level

15%

Intergym scores more

UD San Pedro at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "UD San Pedro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Pedro vs Intergym

UD San Pedro beat Intergym 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Pedro de Alcántara.

UD San Pedro vs Intergym — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD San Pedro vs Intergym