Intergym 1–1 UD San Pedro: Result & Stats

Intergym

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UD San Pedro

10/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio La Espiguera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Intergym26%

×Draw24%

UD San Pedro50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntergymExpected goals in this matchUD San Pedro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.71

Intergym

1.18

UD San Pedro

1.71

UD San Pedro creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 33 away

0.56

creates per match

0.67

2.75

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Intergym

0.56

UD San Pedro

0.67

allows per match

Intergym

2.75

UD San Pedro

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intergym+0.00on par

UD San Pedro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intergym ↓

UD San Pedro →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Intergym or draw

50%

Intergym or UD San Pedro

76%

Draw or UD San Pedro

74%

Winning margin

Intergym wins by 2+

11%

UD San Pedro wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Intergym 1+ goals

69%

Intergym 2+ goals

33%

Intergym 3+ goals

12%

UD San Pedro 1+ goals

82%

UD San Pedro 2+ goals

51%

UD San Pedro 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Intergym (draw refunded)

35%

UD San Pedro (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Intergym at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

UD San Pedro away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Intergym attack 0.56 + UD San Pedro defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.18

UD San Pedro attack 0.67 + Intergym defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Intergym scores more

26%

level

24%

UD San Pedro scores more

50%

UD San Pedro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UD San Pedro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff