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UD San Fernando vs San Miguel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UD San Fernando66%
×Draw22%
San Miguel12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
1.85
San Miguel
0.65

UD San Fernando creates 185% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 17 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
San Miguel
0.59

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
San Miguel
1.71

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
88%
UD San Fernando or San Miguel
78%
Draw or San Miguel
34%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
40%
San Miguel wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
84%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
55%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
28%
San Miguel 1+ goals
48%
San Miguel 2+ goals
14%
San Miguel 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
84%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + San Miguel defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

San Miguel attack 0.59 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
66%
level
22%
San Miguel scores more
12%

UD San Fernando at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD San Fernando 3 – 0 San Miguel

UD San Fernando beat San Miguel 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón in San Bartolomé de Tirajana.