San Miguel 1–1 UD San Fernando: Result & Stats

San Miguel

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

UD San Fernando

10/26/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Miguel34%

×Draw26%

UD San Fernando39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchUD San Fernando

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.36

San Miguel

1.25

UD San Fernando

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

1.53

creates per match

1.26

1.47

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

San Miguel

1.53

UD San Fernando

1.26

allows per match

San Miguel

1.47

UD San Fernando

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

UD San Fernando →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

61%

San Miguel or UD San Fernando

74%

Draw or UD San Fernando

66%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

15%

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

71%

San Miguel 2+ goals

36%

San Miguel 3+ goals

13%

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

74%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

39%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

47%

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.53 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + San Miguel defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Miguel scores more

34%

level

26%

UD San Fernando scores more

39%

UD San Fernando at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Miguel vs UD San Fernando

San Miguel and UD San Fernando drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol San Miguel De Abona in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

San Miguel vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Miguel vs UD San Fernando