UD San Fernando 0–0 San Bartolomé: Result & Stats

UD San Fernando

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Bartolomé

9/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

UD San Fernando60%

×Draw23%

San Bartolomé17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San FernandoExpected goals in this matchSan Bartolomé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.85

UD San Fernando

1.81

San Bartolomé

0.85

UD San Fernando creates 113% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

1.99

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

UD San Fernando

1.99

San Bartolomé

1.00

allows per match

UD San Fernando

0.71

San Bartolomé

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

San Bartolomé →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw

83%

UD San Fernando or San Bartolomé

77%

Draw or San Bartolomé

40%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

35%

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

84%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

54%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

27%

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

57%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

21%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

78%

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

UD San Fernando scores more

60%

level

23%

San Bartolomé scores more

17%

UD San Fernando at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Jonatan Martel← Carlos Galván

35'

Aythami Betancort← Jeremi Rodríguez

46'

Jonathan Quintero← Jesús Farías

46'

Doramas Medina← Adrián Barrera

65'

Echedey Mayor← Felipe

65'

Joni← Ale Vera

82'

Javier Ruano← Sergio Mateo

84'

D. Ferreira

84'

D. Ferreira

86'

87'

M. Bangoura← Simón Mendes

87'

Pablo Vera← Kaelig Judicael Assouman

San

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▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

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Manager: Javier Sánchez

15'▲Jonatan Martel←▼Carlos Galván

35'▲Aythami Betancort←▼Jeremi Rodríguez

46'▲Jonathan Quintero←▼Jesús Farías

65'▲Echedey Mayor←▼Felipe

UD San Fernando substitutes

MartelBetancortQuinteroMayor

Manager: Juan Antonio Machín

46'▲Doramas Medina←▼Adrián Barrera

65'▲Joni←▼Ale Vera

82'▲Javier Ruano←▼Sergio Mateo

87'▲M. Bangoura←▼Simón Mendes

87'▲Pablo Vera←▼Kaelig Judicael Assouman

San Bartolomé substitutes

MedinaJoniRuanoBangouraVera

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 0–0 San Bartolomé

UD San Fernando and San Bartolomé drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón in San Bartolomé de Tirajana.

UD San Fernando vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 0–0 San Bartolomé