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San Bartolomé vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
4/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé36%
×Draw29%
UD San Fernando35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Bartolomé
1.12
UD San Fernando
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Bartolomé
1.27
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

San Bartolomé
0.96
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw
65%
San Bartolomé or UD San Fernando
71%
Draw or UD San Fernando
64%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+
15%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals
67%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
31%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
10%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
67%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
30%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
50%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Bartolomé scores more
36%
level
29%
UD San Fernando scores more
35%

San Bartolomé at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Bartolomé 0 – 0 UD San Fernando

San Bartolomé and UD San Fernando drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León in San Bartolomé.