Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UD San Fernando vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
Edu Salles 29'
3/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 24Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UD San Fernando59%
×Draw25%
Real Unión de Tenerife15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
1.56
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.65

UD San Fernando creates 140% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 17 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
85%
UD San Fernando or Real Unión de Tenerife
75%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
41%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
32%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
79%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
46%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
21%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
48%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
14%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
79%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
59%
level
25%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
15%

UD San Fernando at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Edu Salles
90'
J. Acosta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Fernando vs Real Unión de Tenerife

UD San Fernando beat Real Unión de Tenerife 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 1, 2026.

Goals: Edu Salles (29').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eleuterio Valerón in San Bartolomé de Tirajana.