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Real Unión de Tenerife vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
J. Yanes 90'
D. Perez 60'
N. Rafols 42', 17'
Edu Salles 78'
I. Traore 4'
10/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Campo de Fútbol de La Salud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Unión de Tenerife40%
×Draw29%
UD San Fernando31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.19
UD San Fernando
1.01

Real Unión de Tenerife creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 76 away

creates per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.41
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
0.76
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión de Tenerife ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Unión de Tenerife or draw
69%
Real Unión de Tenerife or UD San Fernando
71%
Draw or UD San Fernando
60%

Winning margin

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
17%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
70%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
33%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
12%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
64%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
27%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
56%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión de Tenerife at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 1.41 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
40%
level
29%
UD San Fernando scores more
31%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
I. Traore
17'
N. Rafols
42'
N. Rafols
60'
D. Perez
78'
Edu Salles
90'
J. Yanes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Unión de Tenerife vs UD San Fernando

Real Unión de Tenerife beat UD San Fernando 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 18, 2025.

Goals: I. Traore (4'), N. Rafols (17', 42'), D. Perez (60'), Edu Salles (78'), J. Yanes (90').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de La Salud in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.