Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UD San Fernando vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
CANC
00:00
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 34Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UD San Fernando62%
×Draw22%
La Cuadra16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
1.90
La Cuadra
0.86

UD San Fernando creates 121% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
84%
UD San Fernando or La Cuadra
78%
Draw or La Cuadra
38%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
37%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
85%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
56%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
29%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
58%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
21%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
79%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.90

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
62%
level
22%
La Cuadra scores more
16%

UD San Fernando at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD San Fernando face La Cuadra (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with UD San Fernando hosting La Cuadra. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

UD San Fernando host La Cuadra at Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.