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La Cuadra vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

La Cuadra
La Cuadra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
12/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

La Cuadra37%
×Draw27%
UD San Fernando35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Cuadra
1.25
UD San Fernando
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 76 away

creates per match

La Cuadra
1.54
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

La Cuadra
1.17
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw
65%
La Cuadra or UD San Fernando
73%
Draw or UD San Fernando
63%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+
16%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals
71%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
36%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
13%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
70%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
34%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)
51%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Cuadra scores more
37%
level
27%
UD San Fernando scores more
35%

La Cuadra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Cuadra 0 – 1 UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat La Cuadra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.