UD San Fernando 0–1 Guía: Result & Stats

UD San Fernando

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guía

Jesús Farías 49'

4/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

UD San Fernando64%

×Draw21%

Guía16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San FernandoExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.89

UD San Fernando

2.03

Guía

0.89

UD San Fernando creates 128% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 14 away

1.99

creates per match

1.07

0.71

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

UD San Fernando

1.99

Guía

1.07

allows per match

UD San Fernando

0.71

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Guía →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw

84%

UD San Fernando or Guía

79%

Draw or Guía

36%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

39%

Guía wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

87%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

60%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

33%

Guía 1+ goals

59%

Guía 2+ goals

22%

Guía 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

80%

Guía (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.03

Guía attack 1.07 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

UD San Fernando scores more

64%

level

21%

Guía scores more

16%

UD San Fernando at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Jesús Farías

53'

David Ramírez← Eleder Marrero

53'

Aythami Betancort← Choco

65'

Alexander Martel← Rivero

65'

Melo← David Flaco

70'

Ayoze← Andrés

70'

Aitor Brito← Echedey Mayor

89'

Luisja← B. Ibarguen

Guía

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Tino Déniz

53'▲David Ramírez←▼Eleder Marrero

53'▲Aythami Betancort←▼Choco

70'▲Ayoze←▼Andrés

70'▲Aitor Brito←▼Echedey Mayor

UD San Fernando substitutes

RamírezBetancortAyozeBrito

Manager: Iván Mendoza

65'▲Alexander Martel←▼Rivero

65'▲Melo←▼David Flaco

89'▲Luisja←▼B. Ibarguen

Guía substitutes

MartelMeloLuisja

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 0–1 Guía

Guía beat UD San Fernando 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 4, 2021.

Goals: Jesús Farías (49').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas in Gran Canaria.

UD San Fernando vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: UD San Fernando 0–1 Guía