Guía 0–2 UD San Fernando: Result & Stats

Guía

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UD San Fernando

David Ramírez 87'

Aythami Betancort 48'

11/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía35%

×Draw27%

UD San Fernando38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchUD San Fernando

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.27

Guía

1.20

UD San Fernando

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 76 away

1.43

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Guía

1.43

UD San Fernando

1.26

allows per match

Guía

1.29

UD San Fernando

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

UD San Fernando →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guía or draw

62%

Guía or UD San Fernando

73%

Draw or UD San Fernando

65%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

15%

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

70%

Guía 2+ goals

34%

Guía 3+ goals

12%

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

72%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

36%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

48%

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guía scores more

35%

level

27%

UD San Fernando scores more

38%

UD San Fernando at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

Aythami Betancort

60'

Ubay← Jesús Farías

69'

Melo← Javi Mejías

72'

Javi Navarro← Aythami Betancort

74'

Cristian← Adonay

74'

Luisja← Jurgen

74'

Iván Morris← Kilian

79'

Azael Perdomo← Alejo

79'

Ayoze← Choco

87'

David Ramírez

90'

Quique← Ruiman

Guía

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Moisés Díaz

60'▲Ubay←▼Jesús Farías

69'▲Melo←▼Javi Mejías

74'▲Cristian←▼Adonay

74'▲Luisja←▼Jurgen

74'▲Iván Morris←▼Kilian

Guía substitutes

UbayMeloCristianLuisjaMorris

Manager: Tino Déniz

72'▲Javi Navarro←▼Aythami Betancort

79'▲Azael Perdomo←▼Alejo

79'▲Ayoze←▼Choco

90'▲Quique←▼Ruiman

UD San Fernando substitutes

NavarroPerdomoAyozeQuique

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Guía 0–2 UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat Guía 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 20, 2020.

Goals: Aythami Betancort (48'), David Ramírez (87').

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Guía 0–2 UD San Fernando