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UD San Fernando vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
3/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UD San Fernando62%
×Draw22%
Gran Tarajal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD San Fernando
1.87
Gran Tarajal
0.84

UD San Fernando creates 123% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

UD San Fernando
1.99
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

UD San Fernando
0.71
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw
84%
UD San Fernando or Gran Tarajal
78%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
38%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+
36%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals
85%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
56%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
29%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
57%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
21%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
79%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.87

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

UD San Fernando scores more
62%
level
22%
Gran Tarajal scores more
16%

UD San Fernando at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD San Fernando 1 – 1 Gran Tarajal

UD San Fernando and Gran Tarajal drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas in Gran Canaria.