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Gran Tarajal vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Gran Tarajal36%
×Draw28%
UD San Fernando36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Tarajal
1.16
UD San Fernando
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 76 away

creates per match

Gran Tarajal
1.34
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Gran Tarajal
1.05
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw
64%
Gran Tarajal or UD San Fernando
72%
Draw or UD San Fernando
64%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
15%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
69%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
32%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
11%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
69%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
32%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
50%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more
36%
level
28%
UD San Fernando scores more
36%

Gran Tarajal at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gran Tarajal vs UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat Gran Tarajal 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal in Gran Tarajal.