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UD Ourense vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
9/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UD Ourense47%
×Draw26%
Rápido Bouzas27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
1.48
Rápido Bouzas
1.04

UD Ourense creates 42% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 75 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.74
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

UD Ourense
0.97
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
73%
UD Ourense or Rápido Bouzas
74%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
53%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
24%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
77%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
43%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
19%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
65%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
28%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
64%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UD Ourense scores more
47%
level
26%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
27%

UD Ourense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Ourense vs Rápido Bouzas

UD Ourense and Rápido Bouzas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.