Rápido Bouzas 0–0 UD Ourense: Result & Stats

Rápido Bouzas

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UD Ourense

1/14/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Baltasar Pujales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Rápido Bouzas41%

×Draw29%

UD Ourense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rápido BouzasExpected goals in this matchUD Ourense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

Rápido Bouzas

1.23

UD Ourense

1.02

Rápido Bouzas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 79 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

1.07

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Rápido Bouzas

1.33

UD Ourense

0.97

allows per match

Rápido Bouzas

1.07

UD Ourense

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rápido Bouzas ↓

UD Ourense →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rápido Bouzas or draw

69%

Rápido Bouzas or UD Ourense

71%

Draw or UD Ourense

59%

Winning margin

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+

18%

UD Ourense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals

71%

Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals

35%

Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals

13%

UD Ourense 1+ goals

64%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

27%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)

57%

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rápido Bouzas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 76 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.33 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rápido Bouzas scores more

41%

level

29%

UD Ourense scores more

31%

Rápido Bouzas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Joni Magisano← Raúl Melo

55'

Antón Guisande← Osián Vázquez

70'

Labrada← José Pérez

72'

Óscar Pardavila← Alejandro Millán

77'

Pedro Vázquez← Álvaro Torralbo

85'

Jorge Maceira← G. Cellerino

Rápido

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Chema Rico

72'▲Óscar Pardavila←▼Alejandro Millán

77'▲Pedro Vázquez←▼Álvaro Torralbo

85'▲Jorge Maceira←▼G. Cellerino

Rápido Bouzas substitutes

PardavilaVázquezMaceira

Manager: Jorge de Dios

19'▲Joni Magisano←▼Raúl Melo

55'▲Antón Guisande←▼Osián Vázquez

70'▲Labrada←▼José Pérez

UD Ourense substitutes

MagisanoGuisandeLabrada

Match Recap: Rápido Bouzas vs UD Ourense

Rápido Bouzas and UD Ourense drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Baltasar Pujales in Vigo.

Rápido Bouzas vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rápido Bouzas vs UD Ourense