UD Ourense 1–1 Barbadás: Result & Stats

UD Ourense

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barbadás

V. Nieves 85'

Osián Vázquez 40'

3/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Estadio Municipal de Oira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

UD Ourense58%

×Draw23%

Barbadás19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD OurenseExpected goals in this matchBarbadás

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.90

UD Ourense

1.76

Barbadás

0.90

UD Ourense creates 96% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

1.74

creates per match

0.82

0.97

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

UD Ourense

1.74

Barbadás

0.82

allows per match

UD Ourense

0.97

Barbadás

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Barbadás+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Barbadás →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw

81%

UD Ourense or Barbadás

77%

Draw or Barbadás

42%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+

33%

Barbadás wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals

83%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

52%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

26%

Barbadás 1+ goals

59%

Barbadás 2+ goals

23%

Barbadás 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

75%

Barbadás (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Barbadás away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Barbadás defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.76

Barbadás attack 0.82 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

UD Ourense scores more

58%

level

23%

Barbadás scores more

19%

UD Ourense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Osián Vázquez

46'

Varo Fernández← Jesús Ares

63'

Carlos Rodriguez← Isma

68'

David Rojo← Pablo Parrilla

68'

Luismi Rincón← V. Matovu

70'

Javi García← Jota

78'

Jeremias Perotti← Xinzo

78'

Fernando Redondo← Osián Vázquez

85'

Barbadás

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jorge de Dios

46'▲Varo Fernández←▼Jesús Ares

68'▲David Rojo←▼Pablo Parrilla

68'▲Luismi Rincón←▼V. Matovu

UD Ourense substitutes

FernándezRojoRincón

Manager: Pedro Agustín

63'▲Carlos Rodriguez←▼Isma

70'▲Javi García←▼Jota

78'▲Jeremias Perotti←▼Xinzo

78'▲Fernando Redondo←▼Osián Vázquez

Barbadás substitutes

RodriguezGarcíaPerottiRedondo

Match Recap: UD Ourense vs Barbadás

UD Ourense and Barbadás drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 10, 2024.

Goals: Osián Vázquez (40'), V. Nieves (85').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Oira in Ourense.

UD Ourense vs Barbadás — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Ourense vs Barbadás