Barbadás 1–0 UD Ourense: Result & Stats

Barbadás

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UD Ourense

Toño Nespereira 77' (pen)

10/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Os Carrís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Barbadás34%

×Draw30%

UD Ourense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarbadásExpected goals in this matchUD Ourense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.04

Barbadás

1.01

UD Ourense

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 79 away

0.88

creates per match

0.97

1.12

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Barbadás

0.88

UD Ourense

0.97

allows per match

Barbadás

1.12

UD Ourense

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barbadás+0.00on par

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barbadás ↓

UD Ourense →

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barbadás or draw

64%

Barbadás or UD Ourense

70%

Draw or UD Ourense

66%

Winning margin

Barbadás wins by 2+

13%

UD Ourense wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Barbadás 1+ goals

64%

Barbadás 2+ goals

27%

Barbadás 3+ goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals

65%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

28%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Barbadás (draw refunded)

49%

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barbadás at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barbadás attack 0.88 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Barbadás defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Barbadás scores more

34%

level

30%

UD Ourense scores more

36%

UD Ourense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Daniel Rivero← Isma

56'

José Pérez← David Rojo

56'

Luismi Rincón← Antón Guisande

77'

Toño NespereiraPenalty

81'

V. Nieves← Alberto Novoa

81'

Jesús Ares← Pablo Corzo

82'

Carlos Rodriguez← Gabi

82'

Fernando Redondo← Xinzo

82'

Barbadás

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Agustín

56'▲Daniel Rivero←▼Isma

82'▲Carlos Rodriguez←▼Gabi

82'▲Fernando Redondo←▼Xinzo

82'▲Marcelo Faria←▼Jota

Barbadás substitutes

RiveroRodriguezRedondoFaria

Manager: Jorge de Dios

56'▲José Pérez←▼David Rojo

56'▲Luismi Rincón←▼Antón Guisande

81'▲V. Nieves←▼Alberto Novoa

81'▲Jesús Ares←▼Pablo Corzo

UD Ourense substitutes

PérezRincónNievesAres

Match Recap: Barbadás vs UD Ourense

Barbadás beat UD Ourense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 22, 2023.

Goals: Toño Nespereira (77' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Os Carrís in Barbadás.

Barbadás vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Barbadás vs UD Ourense