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UD Ourense vs Agrupación Estudiantil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Ourense
UD Ourense
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

UD Ourense58%
×Draw22%
Agrupación Estudiantil20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Ourense
1.93
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.04

UD Ourense creates 86% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

UD Ourense
1.74
Agrupación Estudiantil
1.12

allows per match

UD Ourense
0.97
Agrupación Estudiantil
2.12

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par
Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Agrupación Estudiantil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw
80%
UD Ourense or Agrupación Estudiantil
78%
Draw or Agrupación Estudiantil
42%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+
34%
Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals
85%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
57%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
30%
Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
65%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
28%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)
74%
Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Agrupación Estudiantil away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.12 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

UD Ourense scores more
58%
level
22%
Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
20%

UD Ourense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Ourense vs Agrupación Estudiantil

Agrupación Estudiantil beat UD Ourense 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.