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Agrupación Estudiantil vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Agrupación Estudiantil
Agrupación Estudiantil
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
UD Ourense
UD Ourense
4/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Agrupación Estudiantil36%
×Draw26%
UD Ourense38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.33
UD Ourense
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.53
UD Ourense
0.97

allows per match

Agrupación Estudiantil
1.76
UD Ourense
1.14

finishing

Agrupación Estudiantil+0.00on par
UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agrupación Estudiantil ↓

UD Ourense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Agrupación Estudiantil or draw
62%
Agrupación Estudiantil or UD Ourense
74%
Draw or UD Ourense
64%

Winning margin

Agrupación Estudiantil wins by 2+
16%
UD Ourense wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Agrupación Estudiantil 1+ goals
74%
Agrupación Estudiantil 2+ goals
38%
Agrupación Estudiantil 3+ goals
15%
UD Ourense 1+ goals
74%
UD Ourense 2+ goals
39%
UD Ourense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Agrupación Estudiantil (draw refunded)
49%
UD Ourense (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agrupación Estudiantil at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agrupación Estudiantil attack 1.53 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Agrupación Estudiantil defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Agrupación Estudiantil scores more
36%
level
26%
UD Ourense scores more
38%

UD Ourense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agrupación Estudiantil vs UD Ourense

Agrupación Estudiantil beat UD Ourense 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estatio Municipal de Santa Isabel in Santiago de Compostela.