UD Logroñés 1–1 Internacional de Madrid

UD Logroñés

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Iñaki 10' (pen)

Rubén Ramos 35' (pen)

3/26/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés48%

×Draw30%

Internacional de Madrid22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.72

UD Logroñés

1.23

Internacional de Madrid

0.72

UD Logroñés creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

1.05

creates per match

0.76

0.68

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

UD Logroñés

1.05

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

UD Logroñés

0.68

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw

78%

UD Logroñés or Internacional de Madrid

70%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

52%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

22%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

71%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

35%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

13%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

51%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

16%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

69%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.05 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UD Logroñés scores more

48%

level

30%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

22%

UD Logroñés at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

IñakiPenalty

26'

Álvaro Martín← Reguera

27'

A. Martin

35'

Rubén RamosPenalty

55'

S. Inaki

56'

David Ramos← P. Diamanka

56'

O. Siddiki← Guarrotxena

62'

Álvaro Montero← David Barral

68'

A. Montero

74'

O. Siddiki

77'

Dani Pinillos← Aridane

77'

Rodri← Iñaki

78'

R. Ramos

80'

L. Badiashile

87'

L. Marín← Adrián Mance

87'

Marcos Bravo← Alberto Gil

87'

S. Brulmans← Alvar Herrero

90'

L. Marin

UD

Internacional

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▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mere

56'▲David Ramos←▼P. Diamanka

56'▲O. Siddiki←▼Guarrotxena

77'▲Dani Pinillos←▼Aridane

77'▲Rodri←▼Iñaki

UD Logroñés substitutes

RamosSiddikiPinillosRodriHerrandoMedinaMiralles

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

26'▲Álvaro Martín←▼Reguera

62'▲Álvaro Montero←▼David Barral

87'▲L. Marín←▼Adrián Mance

87'▲Marcos Bravo←▼Alberto Gil

87'▲S. Brulmans←▼Alvar Herrero

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MartínMonteroMarínBravoBrulmansWashingtonSiuKolderiuPituYelco