Internacional de Madrid 2–2 UD Logroñés

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

UD Logroñés

David Barral 32', 11'

Guarrotxena 73'

Javi Castellano 53'

10/17/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Internacional de Madrid47%

×Draw25%

UD Logroñés28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchUD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.15

Internacional de Madrid

1.58

UD Logroñés

1.15

Internacional de Madrid creates 37% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

1.82

creates per match

1.06

1.24

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

UD Logroñés

1.06

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

UD Logroñés

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

UD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

72%

Internacional de Madrid or UD Logroñés

75%

Draw or UD Logroñés

53%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

24%

UD Logroñés wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

79%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

47%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

21%

UD Logroñés 1+ goals

68%

UD Logroñés 2+ goals

32%

UD Logroñés 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

63%

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

47%

level

25%

UD Logroñés scores more

28%

Internacional de Madrid at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

David Barral

21'

J. Dubasin

32'

David Barral

46'

David Ramos← Jorge Herrando

46'

Guarrotxena← Borja Galán

53'

Javi Castellano

56'

Tekio

70'

Kenneth Soler← Álvaro Martín

70'

O. Siddiki← Rafa Parejo

73'

Guarrotxena

74'

Álex Zambrano← Reguera

79'

Álvaro Montero← Adrián Mance

79'

Alberto Gil← David Barral

81'

A. Zambrano

84'

K. Soler

86'

J. Serantes

86'

Jaime Sierra← Jesús Alfaro

90+1'

Dani Pinillos← Iñaki

Internacional

UD

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Barral

Ramos

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

70'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Álvaro Martín

74'▲Álex Zambrano←▼Reguera

79'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Adrián Mance

79'▲Alberto Gil←▼David Barral

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SolerZambranoMonteroGilMasogoSiuHerreroKolderiuNandiPituBlázquezBrulmans

Manager: Mere

46'▲David Ramos←▼Jorge Herrando

46'▲Guarrotxena←▼Borja Galán

70'▲O. Siddiki←▼Rafa Parejo

86'▲Jaime Sierra←▼Jesús Alfaro

90+1'▲Dani Pinillos←▼Iñaki

UD Logroñés substitutes

RamosGuarrotxenaSiddikiSierraPinillosŠimićMedinaMiralles

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–2 UD Logroñés

Internacional de Madrid and UD Logroñés drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 17, 2021.

Goals: David Barral (11', 32'), Javi Castellano (53'), Guarrotxena (73').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Internacional de Madrid 2–2 UD Logroñés