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UD Logroñés vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
10/12/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

UD Logroñés45%
×Draw30%
Arenas Getxo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.22
Arenas Getxo
0.84

UD Logroñés creates 45% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 27 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.18
Arenas Getxo
1.00

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Arenas Getxo
1.26

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
75%
UD Logroñés or Arenas Getxo
70%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
55%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
20%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
70%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
34%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
12%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
57%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
64%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.18 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Arenas Getxo attack 1.00 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
45%
level
30%
Arenas Getxo scores more
25%

UD Logroñés at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Logroñés vs Arenas Getxo

UD Logroñés beat Arenas Getxo 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.