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Arenas Getxo vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
2/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Campo de Fadura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arenas Getxo30%
×Draw31%
UD Logroñés39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
0.88
UD Logroñés
1.05

UD Logroñés creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
0.85
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.04
UD Logroñés
0.91

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
61%
Arenas Getxo or UD Logroñés
69%
Draw or UD Logroñés
70%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
10%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
59%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
22%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
6%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
65%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
28%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
43%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
30%
level
31%
UD Logroñés scores more
39%

UD Logroñés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arenas Getxo 1 – 2 UD Logroñés

UD Logroñés beat Arenas Getxo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fadura in Getxo.