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UD Logroñés II vs SD Logroñés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
8/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UD Logroñés II43%
×Draw23%
SD Logroñés33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés II
1.71
SD Logroñés
1.47

UD Logroñés II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés II
3.09
SD Logroñés
2.33

allows per match

UD Logroñés II
0.61
SD Logroñés
0.33

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw
67%
UD Logroñés II or SD Logroñés
77%
Draw or SD Logroñés
57%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
23%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
82%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
51%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
24%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
77%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
43%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
57%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + SD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

SD Logroñés attack 2.33 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more
43%
level
23%
SD Logroñés scores more
33%

UD Logroñés II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: UD Logroñés II 0–0 SD Logroñés

UD Logroñés II and SD Logroñés drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.