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SD Logroñés vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SD Logroñés53%
×Draw24%
UD Logroñés II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.71
UD Logroñés II
1.04

SD Logroñés creates 64% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 77 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
2.54
UD Logroñés II
1.55

allows per match

SD Logroñés
0.54
UD Logroñés II
0.88

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

UD Logroñés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
77%
SD Logroñés or UD Logroñés II
76%
Draw or UD Logroñés II
47%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
29%
UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
82%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
51%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
24%
UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
65%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
28%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
70%
UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 2.54 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + SD Logroñés defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
53%
level
24%
UD Logroñés II scores more
23%

SD Logroñés at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SD Logroñés 2 – 0 UD Logroñés II

SD Logroñés beat UD Logroñés II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.