UD Logroñés II 1–0 Racing Rioja: Result & Stats

UD Logroñés II

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Rioja

1/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Ciudad Deportiva UD Logroñés Campo 1 Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UD Logroñés II65%

×Draw19%

Racing Rioja16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Logroñés IIExpected goals in this matchRacing Rioja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.04

UD Logroñés II

2.26

Racing Rioja

1.04

UD Logroñés II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 30 away

3.09

creates per match

1.47

0.61

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

UD Logroñés II

3.09

Racing Rioja

1.47

allows per match

UD Logroñés II

0.61

Racing Rioja

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Racing Rioja →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw

84%

UD Logroñés II or Racing Rioja

81%

Draw or Racing Rioja

35%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+

42%

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals

89%

UD Logroñés II 2+ goals

66%

UD Logroñés II 3+ goals

39%

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

65%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

28%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)

80%

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.26

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more

65%

level

19%

Racing Rioja scores more

16%

UD Logroñés II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Logroñés II vs Racing Rioja

UD Logroñés II beat Racing Rioja 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva UD Logroñés Campo 1 Hierba Artificial in Logroño.

UD Logroñés II vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Logroñés II vs Racing Rioja