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Racing Rioja vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
11/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja38%
×Draw26%
UD Logroñés II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja
1.34
UD Logroñés II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja
1.80
UD Logroñés II
1.55

allows per match

Racing Rioja
1.07
UD Logroñés II
0.88

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par
UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

UD Logroñés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw
64%
Racing Rioja or UD Logroñés II
74%
Draw or UD Logroñés II
62%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+
17%
UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals
74%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
39%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
15%
UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
73%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
38%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
51%
UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing Rioja scores more
38%
level
26%
UD Logroñés II scores more
36%

Racing Rioja at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Rioja vs UD Logroñés II

Racing Rioja beat UD Logroñés II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.